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Florida has made a mess of things again. The state government has passed legislation moving its primaries all the way up to January 29—defying both Republican and Democratic Party rules that would take away half of the state’s delegates for holding its vote so early. The Democratic rules also stipulate that any candidate who campaigns in a state with such an early primary will lose all of his or her delegates from Florida to the convention.
According to the Palm Beach Post, Florida Democrats are considering dealing with this problem by making the January 29 primary nonbinding and then having a binding caucus on February 12. The Democratic Party seems likely to accede to such a plan. “This is not the first time that a state legislature has set its primary on a date outside DNC party rules and, as with similar situations in the past, the DNC is working closely with the state party to look at the alternatives for proceeding in accordance with the rules” Stacie Paxton, the DNC press secretary, told the Washington Post.
Putting aside the politics and the party infighting that this situation is causing, from a voting rights perspective, having a “beauty contest” primary in January and a binding caucus later on is a terrible idea. Voter turnout in primary elections is terrible, and getting worse—as low as the single digits in some states in 2004, even in states that held their contests relatively early. Turnout in the twenty-five states that held presidential primaries for both major political parties was 17.2 percent of eligible voters, down 4.1 percentage points from 2000, and down 15.3 percentage points from the high turnout mark of 32.5 percent voting set in 1972.
But the numbers for caucuses are even worse than that. In the 2004 Democratic caucuses, the turnout among eligible voters was as follows,
Iowa (January 19): 5.7 percent
New Mexico (February 3): 7.9 percent
North Dakota (February 3): 2.3 percent
Washington (February 7): 2.5 percent
Michigan (February 7): 2.3 percent
Maine (February 8): 1.8 percent
Nevada (February 14) 0.6 percent
Idaho (February 24): 0.5 percent
Minnesota (March 2): 1.5 percent
Kansas (March 13): 0.1 percent
Wyoming (March 20): 0.2 percent
According to the Las Vegas Sun, “With the exception of 2004, when about 9,000 voters participated statewide, turnout has often numbered in the hundreds. In 2000 fewer than 1,000 participated.”
This is democracy? Single-digit turnout is a legitimate way to determine who the nominees for the presidency should be?
It’s not hard to figure out why caucus turnout is so low. It’s difficult enough for many voters to get to a polling place during the day and cast a ballot. Participating in a caucus means going someplace, quite possibly someone’s home and quite possibly some distance from your house and job, and staying for what typically amounts to hours in order to cast a completely public vote. Clearly only the most committed activists, who also have time to spare and the confidence to speak and vote in a very public manner, are likely to take part.
And here’s what is potentially worse about Florida’s scheme: it seems to mean that voters would be asked to go out and vote TWICE. It’s hard to believe there would not be a substantial fall off between the January contest, and a later contest when the nominee may already be perceived to have been selected by the other states.
So Florida finds itself in a real bind, and it has put the candidates and the parties in an awfully awkward predicament too. At least we know we can always count on Floridians to keep out elections interesting.
Tova Andrea Wang is a Democracy Fellow at The Century Foundation. |
